Market Report - January 2026

San Francisco’s Market Today -  Early Signals & Spring Momentum Ahead (A valuable 2-3 min read)

San Francisco real estate began 2026 with familiar dynamics - very low inventory, limited activity in January, and very strong fundamentals. While activity was quiet early in the year (a typical pattern, especially with winter weather and seasonal slowing), there are early signs that engagement is picking up as rates remain attractive and buyers returning to the market after the Super Bowl period.

Market Data Snapshot (San Francisco)

• Single-family homes: Median price is up 16.2% to $1.7M year-over-year

• Condos/TICs: Median price is up 0.7% to $1.0M year-over-year

• Inventory: Very low overall, constraining choice for buyers.

• Activity: Sluggish in January (seasonally typical), with showing and contract activity starting to strengthen post-Super Bowl.
• Demand: Consistent for well-located, well-priced homes. Buyers are out in force.

3 Things Buyers Should Know Right Now:

January was quiet, but not unusual - Both locally and nationally, January home sales were soft, a pattern seen historically as colder weather and holidays and other activities dampened activity. Nationally, existing-home sales dropped a sharp 8.4% in January, reaching a two-year low in closings, even as affordability improved slightly with lower mortgage rates.

In San Francisco, limited inventory amplified the effect: fewer new listings meant buyers saw less to engage with early in the year. Still, the intent and the quality of interested buyers remain strong, and activity typically re-accelerates as we move into February and March.

Rates are favorable relative to recent history - Mortgage costs remain more attractive than most of the past three years. These levels are helping some buyers re-enter the market and are positive for longer-term affordability planning.

Where are mortgage rates today?

     - 30 year fixed: 6.04%

     - 15 year fixed: 5.61%

Preparation gives buyers an edge - In a market with tight supply, preparation, clear financing readiness, a strong strategy for offers, and a sense of neighborhood priorities, often makes the difference between securing the right home and watching it go. Homes that are priced well and thoughtfully presented are still drawing focused attention.

Neighborhoods showing early traction - Pacific Heights, Marina, Russian Hill, Noe Valley, Bernal Heights, and select pockets of the Inner Sunset and West Portal continue to see steady interest as we head into spring.

What Sellers Are Navigating:

Sellers remain in a favorable position due to tight inventory and ongoing demand for well-located homes. Properties that are accurately priced and thoughtfully prepared are still generating strong interest, even in a slower, January market.

What helps listings stand out now: fresh staging, professional photography, and pricing that reflects both local comparables and current demand. Homes that bring clarity and value to the market continue to perform well, and well-priced opportunities often generate multiple interested buyers.

What’s Ahead

Rather than major swings, expect continued normalization as we move into the spring selling season. Historically, buyer engagement accelerates after February, and with mortgage rates relatively attractive and demand steady, activity should pick up noticeably.

San Francisco’s limited supply, enduring desirability, and long-term value continue to define the market,  even as individual segments show nuance and variation.

Final Thought

Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply tracking the market, understanding local trends, not headlines, gives you clarity. I’m always happy to walk through what this means for your specific neighborhood, property type, or goals. Often, a conversation itself brings everything into focus.

Reach out to chat.  I’d love to share what I’m seeing firsthand.