Market Report - December 2025

MARKET REPORT - December 2025

San Francisco’s Market Today - Steady Ground, Select Opportunities & What to Watch (valuable 2-3 min read!)

San Francisco real estate is entering a steadier chapter. After years of rapid swings, the market feels calmer and more intentional, with opportunities for those who know where and how to look.

Market Data Snapshot (San Francisco)

• Single-family homes: Median price is up 10.4% to $1.7M year-over-year
• Condos/TICs: Median price is up 2.4% to $1.1M year-over-year
• Inventory: Limited overall, with select opportunities
• Demand: Consistent for homes that are well-located and well-presented

Rates & the Big Picture:

Mortgage rates remain in the low-6% range. According to a recent analysis, J.P Morgan’s Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli notes that the economy appears to be settling into a slower, more balanced rhythm - with inflation easing gradually and labor conditions stabilizing. While future rate cuts are still possible later in 2026, the near-term outlook suggests a period of pause rather than rapid change.

Ongoing discussion around Fed leadership and political pressure adds uncertainty, but policy decisions still require consensus, keeping abrupt shifts unlikely.

Where are mortgage rates today?

       - 30 year fixed: 6.2%

       - 15 year fixed: 5.75%

 3 Things Buyers Should Know

     - Momentum is back. December saw the strongest sales pace in nearly three years as mortgage rates stabilized, bringing more buyers back into the market.

     - Location and quality matter. Some neighborhoods, especially condo-heavy areas, offer more flexibility. Meanwhile, pricing across San Francisco has continued to firm and move up across almost ALL districts, especially for single-family homes.     

     - Strategy beats timing. Rates remain elevated but predictable. Buyers who act thoughtfully now and remain flexible on financing are best positioned.

What Sellers Should Know:

Homes that are well-priced, thoughtfully prepared, and turnkey still perform best. Exceptional properties in prime locations continue to attract strong attention.

What Renters Should Know:

Rental demand remains strong, particularly for well-located condos and single-family homes. The Financial District continues to outperform, with limited supply, stable condos, new luxury waterfront buildings, and renewed downtown energy.

Looking Ahead:

Expect normalization rather than dramatic swings. As spring approaches, buyer activity typically increases, and homes that meet today’s expectations will stand out.

Final Thought:

Understanding local nuances is more valuable than chasing headlines. I’m always happy to discuss what this means for your neighborhood, property type, or goals, sometimes a simple conversation brings everything into focus.